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We are in an "El Niño Year". What does that mean, and how can we be prepared?

Writer: Morgan McBride
Morgan McBride
Sep 14
6 min read

The 2026-2027 El Niño weather event has arrived. As individuals, communities, and nations, how can we remain resilient during this period?



Wherever you are in the world, I imagine you have been feeling the extreme weather conditions of 2026. Extreme heat, excessive rainfall, and natural disasters have become a staple component of the year thus far. These conditions will continue over the next few months and will likely intensify due to our current super El Niño period. 


What is that? El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of a naturally occurring climate pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Also referred to as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), these weather events shift back and forth irregularly every two to seven years, causing predictable changes to the ocean’s temperature. These changes affect normal wind and rainfall patterns across the tropics, which ultimately ripple through the global climate.



As a single climate phenomenon, ENSO can be in one of the following three phases: El Niño, La Niña, or neutral. The El Niño phase involves a warming of the ocean surface, also known as above-average sea surface temperatures (SST), in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. For instance, near Indonesia, rainfall often decreases while rainfall increases over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The low-level surface winds that typically blow from east to west along the equator typically weaken or shift to blow in the opposite direction (west to east) in this phase. On the other hand, the La Niña phase sees the cooling of the ocean’s surface, also known as below-average sea surface temperatures (SST), in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. In this case, rainfall likely increases over Indonesia, while rainfall decreases over the central Pacific Ocean region. The standard east-to-west wind movement along the equator grows in strength during a La Niña period.


A third option, often called the neutral phase, is when sea surface temperatures are close to average across the Pacific Ocean. Nevertheless, the ocean may sometimes appear to be in either the El Niño or La Niña phase, but the atmosphere does not correlate.


The main idea is that this climate phenomenon alters the status quo of global atmospheric circulation, which in turn affects a wider range of global weather conditions.



The strength of an El Niño shifts the Pacific jet stream (a narrow, fast-flowing river of high-speed air high above the North Pacific Ocean), which determines the temperature and precipitation patterns we experience. Peru, Chile, and Ecuador often see record rainfall during this period. However, Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia can face drought conditions during an El Niño.


While experts still struggle to predict the start of an El Niño ahead of time, forecasters can predict its intensity and evolution once it begins.

Scientists described the 1997-1998 El Niño episode as the strongest ENSO event of the 20th century. During this period, drought conditions affected Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. California and the southeastern United States also saw heavier winter rainfall, and the upper Midwest experienced record-breaking warmth.


The 2015-2016 El Niño episode was also regarded as an unusually strong weather event. The winter season (November to January) brought severe tropical cyclones in the Pacific basin, limited tropical cyclone activity in the North and South Atlantic oceans, abnormally dry conditions that sparked wildfires in western Canada, severe drought in Venezuela, and more.



Yet, according to the World Meteorological Organization, this year’s El Niño event will be the largest in at least the past 1,000 years. This will likely affect droughts, floods, forest fires, food production, cyclones, extreme heat, and other critical issues.


Thankfully, because forecasts can provide advance warning, governments and organizations have opportunities to prepare for these extreme weather events. However, this notion also makes me concerned, as I wonder whether our governments and global organizations are currently “productive” enough to prepare for an event of this caliber.



Global Food and Water Supply


The U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) indicated that a super El Niño period could bring the world devastating floods, drought, widespread hunger, disease outbreaks, and forced displacement. These risks often bring more extreme impacts from drought in Central America, Southeast Asia, the Sahel region, and Southern Africa, while also increasing flood risks in East Africa and South America. During the worst El Niño years of the 1800s, death tolls from famines in India, China, and Brazil reached tens of millions.


For the agricultural industries and the communities they support, these weather conditions can shrink harvests, kill livestock, damage infrastructure, spread diseases, and limit access to clean water. Such developments would gravely increase the number of individuals facing hunger or malnutrition over the next year. Unfortunately, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network projects that 115 to 125 million people will need urgent food assistance by the end of 2026, with risks of famine for Sudan, South Sudan, and Somalia.


“El Niño is one of the most challenging climate phenomena. Nutrition is everything for your capacity to withstand the challenges of its negative impacts on human health,” said Adugna Woyessa, an epidemiologist at the Ethiopian Public Health Institute. Woyessa’s statement matters for many reasons, including the importance of nutrition in fighting disease and other crises caused by El Niño. Beyond the mere travesty of going hungry, malnutrition increases an individual's risk of disease, chronic health conditions, permanent organ damage, and more.



Numerous nations and organizations are working to support people facing food insecurity and malnutrition-related health concerns. Action Against Hunger, the World Food Programme, the Hunger Project, the Bread for the World Institute, and many more humanitarian aid groups provide direct aid to communities, advocate in national and international governance forums, deploy volunteers, and develop strategies to combat global food insecurity. Their work will be incredibly important over the next year, as many communities face heightened levels of food scarcity.



Governance on a Global Scale


Experts have said they're concerned that countries and humanitarian aid groups will have a harder time preparing for this El Niño event because of recent cuts to aid budgets and similar political developments.



In early February 2025, a month into his second term, U.S. President Trump’s administration shut down the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The organization has helped save over 90 million lives around the world over the past twenty years; however, all operations have now been halted. USAID’s programs and projects supported a broad range of issues, including health, agriculture, education, economic growth, infrastructure, humanitarian aid, and more. Historically, USAID had been on the front lines of providing humanitarian aid before, during, and after an El Niño or La Niña weather period. From 1989 to 2015, USAID and the Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) responded to an average of 65 disasters annually in 50 countries. Their work also helped move the needle in preparedness by helping countries and communities reduce risk and build infrastructure. Although this work continues through other nations and humanitarian aid organizations, the loss of USAID will be felt, as additional resources and funding would always be welcome in the global humanitarian aid space.


Approximately half of the world’s 68 poorest nations are either currently experiencing fiscal debt distress or at high risk of it, according to the International Monetary Fund. These preexisting financial crises put many countries on the back foot in their ability to prepare for this El Niño year. Further compounding this issue, regional conflicts, global supply chain issues, and high costs of living are separate factors that exacerbate the fiscal concerns around preparing for El Niño.


On June 4th, 2026, the United Nations’ Food and Agricultural Organization and World Food Programme issued their first joint appeal for donations to help thwart an El Niño-related global humanitarian crisis. They aim to reach 8.8 million people across 22 high-risk nations with anticipatory action funding, so that resilience projects can get ahead of the impending weather. Tom Fletcher, the UN Emergency Relief Coordinator, aptly stated that “The choice is clear: we can wait for disaster, or we can invest in resilience.” 



Now What?


This article wasn’t intended to be intimidating or fear-mongering. However, we need to understand the dynamic reality of experiencing a super El Niño shift amid heightened climate change, global instability, and weakening governance.


As individuals and communities, we should actively consider how best to prepare ourselves and those around us for what could be an unprecedented El Niño year. I highly recommend looking into how El Niño weather patterns might affect your local area, as they will vary widely around the world. Also, check your local and regional governments. What is their El Niño preparedness plan? If they don’t have one, urge them to create one, because they’re behind schedule.



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