The Continued Theft of Democracy in Post-Communist Europe

Morgan McBride
Apr 11
8 min read

A continuation of previous research which explores the phenomenon of democratic backsliding through the lens of organized crime and populist politics.

“Corruption to the degree and intensity we are now witnessing is an affront. It also brings down economies, ignites wars, exterminates people and species, and tears irrevocable scars across the face of the earth. It is an existential threat not just to the democratic principles we claim to revere, but to the very survival of our society.”

— On Corruption in America by Sarah Chayes

The decline of liberal democracies over the last ten years raises serious concerns about the stability of democracy worldwide. In a journal article previously written by the writer of The Crossroads Podcast — Morgan McBride — it explored the notion that the trajectory of democratic backsliding in Central and Eastern Europe is not uniform. Hungary, Serbia, and Albania have experienced different paths of democratizing and autocratizing throughout the past two decades.

Since 2007, Hungary has shifted from a liberal democracy to an electoral autocracy, meaning the country’s democratic principles have decreased. Serbia’s autocratization trajectory indicates that its democratic norms have broken down to the extent that the electoral process remains one of the nation’s last active democratic institutions. Conversely, Albania democratized during this period, progressing from an electoral democracy to a liberal democracy. Such a discordant path towards and away from democracy across Central and Eastern Europe raises questions about the causes of democratic backsliding.

Overall, the Central and Eastern European region faces challenges stemming from organized criminal activity, in which criminal enterprises collaborate with state actors, fostering corruption and undermining democratic institutions. Populist leaders around the world exploit these conditions to consolidate power, posing a significant threat to democratic principles.

In many ways, democratic backsliding can be seen in a shift towards autocratic governance in the region, a trend exacerbated by the relationship between organized crime and populist politics.

Hungary, Serbia, and Albania share histories of the post-communist transition and the 2008 global financial crisis; however, they have varying experiences with democratic backsliding. Research has shown that organized crime has maintained a significant role in the social, political, and economic spheres of these three nations. Trafficking and smuggling networks operate throughout the region, while corruption and undue government influence over criminal activity also affect illicit networks in all three countries. Furthermore, the political ideology and strategy of populism can manipulate nationalist ideologies and other beliefs to appeal to the citizenry’s real social, economic, and political concerns. Such tactics disguise the populist leadership’s real desire to gain control over democratic institutions.

An amalgamation of organized crime, corruption, and populist politics develops into harmful symptoms of democratic backsliding, inhibiting a nation’s ability to reverse democratic backsliding.

Previous research conducted in 2024 explored the interplay among democracy, organized crime, populism, and corruption across four countries — Hungary, Serbia, Albania, and the United States. Over the last two years, numerous developments and regressions have occurred in these case study nations, and there is tremendous potential for substantial change throughout the rest of 2026.

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Hungary

Photo by Guardian Design/AFP/Getty Images/EPA (Viktor Orbán - left, Péter Magyar - right)

On Sunday, April 12th, 2026, Hungarians will head to the polls for a potentially contentious national election that could unseat Hungary’s leader of sixteen years, Viktor Orbán. Orbán, the current prime minister of Hungary, and his Fidesz party have maintained control of the nation since 2010 through an illiberal, populist leadership. Yet, for the first time in sixteen years, the decline of the Fidesz party has gained some traction in recent polling and demonstrations in Hungary.

Although Péter Magyar is a former Fidesz party insider, Magyar began campaigning against Fidesz’s leader — Viktor Orbán — in 2024 after a political scandal impacting Fidesz leadership.

Magyar has cultivated a strong support base through touring the nation with the aim of “reuniting the nation”. His campaign outlines its goals of tackling corruption in Hungary, improving the struggling economy, and unlocking frozen European Union funds, among other issues. In 2024, Magyar took over the dormant center-right Tisza political party, winning 29.6% of the vote and seven seats in the European Parliament.

Repeated gerrymandering, voter buying, intimidation, abolishing the fiscal ceiling on campaign spending, and other tactics implicate Hungary’s free, but potentially not fair, elections. Additionally, government-aligned media and billboard campaigns produce swaths of content featuring anti-Ukrainian messaging, including AI-generated videos illustrating apocalyptic scenes of war, crime, and economic collapse. The digital campaign aims to perpetuate Orbán’s claims that the opposition seeks to sell Hungary out to Brussels and the EU.

Even if Magyar succeeds in obtaining the prime ministership, the political upheaval required to dismantle the Fidesz party’s control over Hungary’s political institutions will pose complications. For instance, Hungary’s president, Tamás Sulyok, a Fidesz loyalist in office until 2029, could pose a substantial obstacle to the legislative process if Magyar succeeds. Additionally, this potential political upset does not guarantee improved relations between Hungary and the European Union, as Péter Magyar’s Tisza party currently vows to reject the EU’s proposed migrant pact and oppose Ukraine’s accelerated EU accession.

Serbia

Months of student-led protests in Serbia sparked after a tragic collapse of an external concrete canopy at the Novi Sad railway station in November 2024, which killed sixteen people. The train station collapse became a symbol of entrenched corruption in Serbia, a driving force behind the ongoing protests throughout the country. Early demands for a transparent investigation into the train station’s recent renovations, bolstered by China’s Belt and Road Initiative from 2021 to 2024. The momentum from the protestors included vocal demands for snap elections to unseat the entrenched nature of government corruption, as many blame such corruption as a culprit for the tragic incident.

Protests continued throughout Serbia, reaching new heights on the one-year anniversary of the Novi Sad railway collapse. In November 2025, university students and other protesters embarked on marches from various points across the nation towards Novi Sad in northern Serbia. Although these protests began as a reaction to the Novi Sad collapse, these outcries soon morphed into a general frustration with President Aleksandar Vučić’s government. In the aftermath of the catastrophe, Serbia’s prime minister at the time, Miloš Vučević, resigned on January 28, 2025, due to the continued protests and accusations of corruption within the government.

Beyond Serbia’s domestic conflicts, President Aleksandar Vučić’s ongoing balancing act between the European Union and his ties to Vladimir Putin’s regime continues to strain Serbia’s global standing. Vučić’s rhetoric oscillates between a pro-European and a pro-Russian stance depending on the political circumstances of the moment.

According to recent reporting from POLITICO, the European Union (EU) asserts that Serbia could lose up to 1.5 billion euros in EU funding. The European Commission — an arm of the European Union — considers withholding these funds on the basis that Serbia’s democratic backsliding and continued close relations with Russia fail to meet the EU’s standards. Although Serbia is not a member of the EU, the country has been eligible to receive EU funds and grants related to Serbia’s efforts to pursue legal reforms.

“We are increasingly worried about what is happening in Serbia. From laws that undermine the independence of the judiciary to crackdowns on protesters and recurrent meddling in independent media. The Commission is assessing if the country still fulfils the conditions for ‘payments under the EU’s financial instruments.’” — a statement from European Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos

Even though Serbia’s official response asserts that it still intends to pursue full EU membership, the balancing act that Vučić and his government have undertaken seems to be growing more fragile.

Albania

Photo by Jens Schleuter/AFP via Getty Images

After four years of talks between the European Union and Albania, Albania opened formal accession negotiations with the EU in late 2024 as it continues to seek EU membership. Significant policy overhauls in public procurement, financial management, and human capital development have been part of Albania’s reform push, especially to align with the European Union’s membership conditions.

Amidst these developments, protests and demonstrations arose in early 2026, led by the opposition leader and former prime minister Sali Berisha. The violent clashes accused Albania's current prime minister, Edi Rama, of corruption and demanded his resignation. Even though Sali Berisha has also been suspected of corruption for awarding public contracts to his associates, his denial of these claims remains a point of fuel for his opposition party in these protests.

A key point in these corruption allegations stems from the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecution’s suspension of Deputy Prime Minister Belinda Balluka — an ally of Prime Minister Rama — for alleged involvement in a public procurement graft case. The accusations specifically relate to Balluka allegedly favoring public bids to specific bidders, including for the 190-million-euro Llogara Tunnel project.

Although Prime Minister Rama has publicly supported these anti-corruption efforts, he has criticized the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecution (SPAK) for overreach in its actions against high-level government officials. Rama’s actions have also shielded Belinda Balluku from arrest by SPAK’s special prosecutor for her interference with infrastructure projects. A European Commission spokesperson has taken notice of Rama’s actions and stated that “The EU takes note of the results of today’s vote in the Albanian parliament. Commitment to the rule of law and the fight against corruption are of paramount importance for the EU accession process.”

Overall, Albania has made progress in strengthening government institutions and combating corruption. However, such momentum needs to continue as they aim to complete the European Union access process over the next few years.

The United States

Even though the United States has been considered a pillar of democracy and democratic norms, President Donald Trump has governed as an authoritarian populist in both of his terms, pushing the limits of his constitutional authority. Trump’s second term in office has been riddled with corruption and catastrophic violent campaigns around the world. Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, Pakistan, Somalia, Libya, Syria, Venezuela, Nigeria, Iran, and others endure either direct or indirect violent strikes stemming from the Trump administration.

The National Security Strategy produced by Trump’s administration in 2025 accuses prior administrations of overcommitting and overextending the United States’ global footprint. This is a statement riddled with irony, considering Trump and his administration have been intricately inserting the United States in geopolitical conflicts under the guise of necessary intervention. However, the strategic document continues, stating that “the affairs of other countries are our concern only if their activities directly threaten our interests.” Such a caveat seems to provide a loophole: if the administration claims a connection between a foreign issue and the United States, then U.S. meddling in foreign affairs can be justified under this strategy.

Beyond military interventions, Trump’s administration has also affected elections around the world through its foreign policy and populist rhetoric. For instance, the front-runner for Romania’s presidential election in May of 2025, George Simion, ran on an ultranationalist campaign that echoed the sentiments of Trump’s MAGA movement. Yet, his centrist, pro-European opponent, Nicusor Dan, ultimately won the election and claimed the presidency. On the other hand, some candidates who have aligned themselves with Trump’s rhetoric, like England’s Reform Party founder Nigel Farage, have performed a balancing act between critiques of Trump and similar right-wing sentiments that align with his political base.

Both domestically and globally, Donald Trump’s second term in office continues to dismantle the democratic institutions of the United States. Although November 2026’s midterm elections can help shift power away from Trump’s grasp, it would still be a long road to recovery for the United States in the coming years.

Where do we go from here?

A trend woven throughout the backsliding and developments seen in all four countries highlights the continued presence of corruption in the political landscape, especially as countries fall away from their previously instituted democratic principles. When considering the lasting significance of democratic backsliding, a shift from global democratic norms toward authoritarian practices represents a setback for fundamental freedoms. Ripple effects of democratic backsliding and its related factors — corruption, criminal activity, populism, and others — can dissolve important treaties and international institutions, destabilize regions, and provide violent actors with space to operate.

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